Indasteri ea lik'hemik'hale e ntse e e-na le keketseho ea theko ea "nalane" ka 2025, e susumetsoang ke ho hlophisoa bocha ha matla a phepelo le tlhoko le kabo bocha ea boleng ho pholletsa le ketane ea phepelo. Ka tlase ke tlhahlobo ea ba susumetsang keketseho ea litheko, mohopolo o ka morao ho phapang ea phaello, litsela tsa ho hlophisoa bocha ha indasteri, le menyetla ea matsete.
I. Bahlohlelletsi ba ho phahama ha theko ba nang le maemo a tebileng
1. Liphetoho tse Fetohileng ho Lisebelisoa tse Tala
- Ho se leka-lekane ha phepelo ea oli e tala le tlhoko: Likhaello tsa tlhahiso ea OPEC+ hammoho le kholo e fokolang ho tsoa ho bahlahisi bao e seng ba OPEC li bolokile Brent crude e le kaholimo ho $100 ka barele.
- Tlhokeho e potlakileng ea thepa e ncha ea matla: Lithium carbonate (sehlopha sa indasteri bakeng sa libeteri tsa LFP) litheko li nyolohile ka 120% YoY, ha solvent ea electrolyte ea DMC e ile ea feta letšoao la ¥10,000/tonne.
- Litšenyehelo tse hlakileng tsa khabone: Litefiso tsa khabone tsa CBAM tsa EU joale li koahela lik'hemik'hale tsa motheo tse kang ammonia ea maiketsetso le methanol.
2. Ho tiea ha Phepelo ea Meaho
- Ho fallisoa ha bokgoni ba Yuropa: BASF le dinatla tse ding di kwetse 30% ya bokgoni ba ammonia ya maiketsetso ya Jeremane, mme tlhahiso ya yona ya fetisetswa Lebopong la Kou la US.
- Phetoho ea Chaena lehlakoreng la phepelo 2.0: Litlhoko tsa ntlafatso ea tikoloho le ea tekheniki indastering ea dae le titanium dioxide li potlakisitse ho tsoa ha bahlahisi ba banyenyane ho isa ho ba mahareng.
- Litšitiso tsa thepa ea lipolotiki: Koluoa ea Leoatle le Lefubelu e bakile keketseho ea 300% ea litšenyehelo tsa ho romela thepa Asia-Europe, e leng se ileng sa eketsa keketseho ea litheko bakeng sa lihlahisoa tse amehang ke lipalangoang joalo ka TDI.
3. Ho Fetisa Litšenyehelo ho tsoa ho Liphetoho tsa Theknoloji
- Khoebo ea thepa e thehiloeng linthong tsa tlhaho: Litheko tsa PLA li laela premium ea 40% ho feta PE ea setso, 'me Apple le Tesla li kena likonteraka tsa nako e telele.
- Sebaka sa lik'hemik'hale tsa semiconductor: Litheko tsa hydrofluoric acid ea elektroniki e hloekileng haholo li fetile $50,000/tonne, ka premium ea 15% ho feta mekhoa e meng ea Majapane/Korea Boroa.
II. 'Mapa oa Phapang ea Phaello
| Karolo | Phetoho ea ROE (2024 khahlanong le 2025) | Katoloso ea Phapang ea Litheko | Bakhanni ba Bohlokoa |
| Lisebelisoa tse Ncha tsa Matla | +8.2pct→ 21.5% | 35-50% | Lintlafatso tsa betri tsa boemo bo tiileng |
| Lik'hemik'hale tse ngata | -3.5pct → 6.8% | 10-15% | Bothata ba litšenyehelo tsa tsela e thehiloeng mashaleng |
| Lik'hemik'hale tse Ikhethang | +5.1pct→ 18.3% | 25-40% | Tlhoko e bobebe ea thepa ea likoloi |
| Lik'hemik'hale tsa temo | +2.3pct → 12.7% | 18-22% | Kamohelo ea lijalo tsa GMO + komello ea Amerika Boroa |
III. Phallo ea Boleng ho Pholletsa le Ketane ea Phepelo
1. Beng ba Mehloli e Phahameng (mohlala, bahlahisi ba phosphate le lithium) ba laola matla a theko, mme dikhamphani tse kang Yuntianhua di fihlella phaello e kaalo ka >50% kotara e le nngwe.
2. Likarolo tse Bohareng ba Moeli o Phahameng oa Tšitiso:
- Li-fluoropolymers: Litefiso tsa ho sebetsana le thepa ea karohano ea PVDF li fihlile ho ¥80,000/tonne.
- Lik'hemik'hale tse hloekileng haholo: Litlhoko tsa bohloeki ba isopropanol ba sehlopha sa semiconductor li eketsehile ho tloha ho 99.99% ho isa ho 99.9999%.
3. Bafani ba Mekhoa ea ho Iketsetsa Lintho ka Tsela e Tlase: Likhamphani tse kang Covestro li hlahisitse mehlala ea "ho lefa bakeng sa ts'ebetso", e leng se ileng sa eketsa ho boloka bareki ka 30%.
IV. Lintlha tsa Bohlokoa tsa 2025 tsa Katleho
1. Lifensetere tse Nkelang Sebaka tsa Theknoloji:
- Melemo ea litšenyehelo tsa Ethane Cracking e fokotseha, 'me ROI ea projeke ea PDH e theohela ka tlase ho 5%.
- Litšenyehelo tsa tlhahiso ea BDO tse thehiloeng ho bio li theohile ka 25% ha li bapisoa le litsela tsa peterole.
2. Tekanyo-bocha ea Libaka:
- Setsi sa lik'hemik'hale tsa sebabole le sebabole Bochabela bo Hare: SABIC ea Saudi e hahile fektheri ea asiti ea sulfuric e theko e tlase ea 2M ton/selemo.
- Li-intermediate tsa liaparo tsa Asia Boroa-bochabela: Nippon Paint Vietnam e sebetsa ka tšebeliso ea matla a 120%.
3. Tlhahlobo-botjha ea ESG:
- Merero e tala ea ammonia e thehiloeng ho haeterojene e fumana litefiso tsa boleng tse fetang 3.
- Lithibelo tsa EU ho lihlahisoa tse nang le PFAS li khanna ka holimo ho 60% CAGR bakeng sa mekhoa e meng.
V. Lethathamo la Liqeto tsa Matsete
Lintho tsa Bohlokoa ka Kabo ea Maano:
- Thepa e nang le lithibelo tse phahameng: Li-core tsa mahe a linotši tsa Aramid, li-precursors tsa silicon carbide.
- Ditshitiso tsa tshebetso: Ho kopanngwa ha adiponitrile ho thehilweng ho Plasma, phetoho ya CO₂-ho-DMC.
- Liqhobane tse patiloeng: Li-stripper tse thibelang ho nka lifoto, li-sealant tsa boemo ba sefofane.
Litemoso tsa Kotsi:
- US e beha litefiso tsa 15% ho thepa ea China e thehiloeng linthong tsa tlhaho (e sebetsa ho tloha kotareng ea boraro ea 2025).
- Lintlafatso tsa betri ea sodium-ion li ka fokotsa tlhoko ea thepa ea lithium.
Indasteri ena e ntse e ntlafatsoa ka ho fetisisa ketane ea eona ea boleng ho tloha ka 2008. Likhamphani tse nang le bokhoni ba ho khetholla theknoloji le ho kopanya ka ho otloloha, hammoho le libapali tse ikhethileng tse nang le laesense ea tlhahiso e fokolang, ke lintlha tsa bohlokoa tse shebaneng le tsona. Har'a ho feto-fetoha ha litheko ho hoholo, lik'hamphani tse bolokang phetoho ea thepa ea ka tlung ka tlase ho matsatsi a 30 li tla bontša ho mamella phaello ka matla.
Nako ea poso: Mots'eanong-30-2025