The year 2023 creeps in. Ka optimization ea maano a thibelo le taolo ea seoa, matla a mehato ea ho tsitsisa kholo le phello e tlase, litsi tse 'maloa tsa lipatlisiso li bolela esale pele hore kholo ea selemo le selemo ea GDP ea China e tla khutla haholo selemong sena.E le indasteri ea tšiea moruong oa naha, indasteri ea lik'hemik'hale e hokahanya mehloli e fapaneng ea mehloli le matla ho ea holimo, ha karolo e ka tlaase ea noka e amana ka ho toba le litlhoko tsa letsatsi le letsatsi tsa batho.Ka 2023, indasteri ea lik'hemik'hale e lokela ho nahana ka ho feto-fetoha ha maemo le ho feto-fetoha ha lipina, joale ke libaka life tse tla fetoha chelete e matla ka ho fetisisa ea capital tuyere?E le ho khotsofatsa babali, maano a matsete a petroliamo le lik'hemik'hale a lik'hamphani tsa tšireletso tse kang Huaxin Securities, New Century Securities, Changjiang Securities le China Merchants Securities a tla hlophisoa ka botlalo.
Seboka sa Haufinyane sa Mosebetsi oa Moruo o Bohareng se boletse ka ho hlaka hore boiteko bo lokela ho etsoa ho atolosa tlhokahalo ea lehae, 'me tokiso ea morao-rao ea leano la taolo ea seoa e potlakisitse tsosoloso ea' maraka oa bareki ba malapeng.Tlas'a tebello e felletseng, likhoebo tse 'maloa li lumela hore: Ka 2023, tlhoko ea lihlahisoa tse ling tsa lik'hemik'hale e lebelletsoe ho khutlisa kholo, mme poleiti e ncha ea lisebelisoa tsa lik'hemik'hale e amehang ntlafatsong ea matla a macha, polokelo ea matla, semiconductor le indasteri ea sesole e ntse e tla tsoela pele. boloka khoebo e phahameng.Har'a tsona, lisebelisoa tsa semiconductor, lisebelisoa tsa photovoltaic, lisebelisoa tsa lithium joalo-joalo li tšoaneloa ke tlhokomelo ea batseteli.
Lisebelisoa tsa semiconductor: nka monyetla oa ho nkela sebaka sa lapeng ho potlakisa tsoelo-pele
Ka 2022, ka lebaka la maemo a moruo a lefats'e le ho feto-fetoha ha maemo a moruo a indasteri le phello e pheta-phetoang ea seoa sena, indasteri eohle ea lisebelisoa tsa elektroniki e ile ea tobana le khatello e itseng ea ts'ebetso.Empa ka kakaretso, indasteri ea semiconductor ea China e ntse e hola.
Guoxin Securities Research Report e bontšitse hore sekhahla sa ho aha thepa ea semiconductor naheng ea heso e ne e ka ba 10% feela ka 2021, 'me e ne e se na menyetla ho latela maemo a maruo le tlholisano.Leha ho le joalo, ha nako e ntse e ea, indasteri ea potoloho e kopaneng ea naha ea heso e tla kena tseleng ea boithuto bo ikemetseng.Ho lebelletsoe hore thepa ea lapeng le lisebelisoa li ka fumana lisebelisoa le menyetla e mengata, mme potoloho e 'ngoe ea lehae e lebelletsoe ho khutsufatsa.
Lilemong tsa morao tjena, tlhoko ea likopo tsa semiconductor le mebaraka ea bareki e eketsehile butle-butle.Ka 2021, thekiso ea semiconductor ea lefats'e e fihlile ho lidolara tse limilione tse likete tse 555.9, keketseho ea US $ 45.5 billion ho feta 2020;e lebelletsoe ho tsoela pele ho hola ka 2022, mme thekiso ea semiconductor e tla fihla ho US $ 601.4 billion.Ho na le mefuta e mengata ea lisebelisoa tsa semiconductor, 'me tse tharo tse holimo ka ho fetisisa 'marakeng ke li-wafers tsa silicon, likhase le ho bopa ha bobebe.Holim'a moo, karolo ea 'maraka ea mokelikeli oa ho bentša le liphaephe tsa ho bentša, li-reagents tsa likhomaretsi tsa lithography, lithography, lik'hemik'hale tse metsi le lipehelo tsa sputtering ke 7.2%, 6.9%, 6.1%, 4.0%, le 3.0%, ka ho latellana.
Guangfa Securities Research Report e lumela hore ho itšeha tšimong ea lisebelisoa tsa semiconductor (lik'hemik'hale tsa elektroniki) ka lipatlisiso le nts'etsopele kapa ho kopanya katoloso le ho fumana thepa ke mohlala o atileng haholo bakeng sa likhoebo tsa lik'hemik'hale ho batla phetoho lilemong tsa morao tjena.Leha lik'hamphani tse atlehileng tsa phetoho li ka fumana litheko tse phahameng tsa mebaraka ha li ntse li fumana indasteri e potlakileng, re kentse leqhubu la kholo e habeli.Leqhubung la nts'etsopele e potlakileng ea indasteri ea semiconductor ea lapeng, lik'hamphani tse amanang le thepa le tsona li ile tsa tlisa monyetla o motle bakeng sa phetisetso ea lapeng.Likhamphani tse ling tse nang le matla a matla a R&D le maemo a bareki a atlehileng, 'me phetoho e atlehileng ea sehlahisoa le ntlafatso li lebelletsoe ho arolelana nts'etsopele e potlakileng ea indasteri ea semiconductor.
Ping An Securities Research e tlaleha hore ho na le lintlha tse ngata joalo ka "silicon cycle" le macroeconomic cycles, mme indasteri ea semiconductor e lebelletsoe ho theoha ka 2023.
The Western Securities Research Report e lumela hore keketseho ea taolo ea kantle ho naha ea US e tla potlakisa mefuta e meng ea lapeng ea thepa ea semiconductor.Ba na le ts'epo mabapi le lisebelisoa tsa semiconductor, likarolo le lisebelisoa tse amanang, le 'maraka oa silicon carbide.
Photovoltaic Material: Libilione tse leshome -level POE maraka e emetse ho phunyeletsa
Ka 2022, tlas'a nts'etsopele ea leano la naha ea heso, palo ea lisebelisoa tse ncha indastering ea photovoltaic ea malapeng e ile ea eketseha haholo, 'me tlhokahalo ea filimi ea photovoltaic glue e boetse e eketseha.
Lisebelisoa tse tala tsa filimi ea Photovoltaic li arotsoe ka mefuta e 'meli: sechaba sa ethylene -ethyl acetate (EVA) le polyolefin elastomer (POE).EVA, e le thepa ea morao-rao e tala ea filimi ea photovoltaic glue, e na le tekanyo e phahameng ea ho itšetleha ka thepa, 'me e na le sebaka se seholo sa sebaka sa bolulo nakong e tlang.Ka nako e ts'oanang, ho lebeletsoe hore tlhokahalo ea EVA tšimong ea filimi ea photovoltaic glue naheng ea heso ka 2025 e ka fihla ho 45,05%.
POE e 'ngoe e tala e ka sebelisoa ho photovoltaic, likoloi, likhoele, ho foaming, lisebelisoa tsa lapeng le masimo a mang.Hona joale, filimi ea sekhomaretsi ea photovoltaic e fetohile sebaka se seholo ka ho fetisisa sa kopo ea POE.Ho latela "China Photovoltaic Industry Development Road Map (Khatiso ea 2021)", karolo ea mmaraka ea filimi ea lapeng ea POE glue le foam polyethylene (EPE) glue filimi ka 2021 e nyolohetse ho 23.1%.Lilemong tsa morao tjena, ka keketseho e tsoelang pele ea tlhahiso ea likarolo tsa photovoltaic naheng ea heso le ho kenella ho tsoelang pele ha POE ka filimi ea photovoltaic glue, tlhokahalo ea malapeng ea POE e ntse e eketseha butle-butle.
Leha ho le joalo, hobane ts'ebetso ea tlhahiso ea POE e na le litšitiso tse phahameng, hona joale, lik'hamphani tsa malapeng ha li na bokhoni ba POE, 'me tšebeliso eohle ea POE naheng ea heso e itšetlehile ka thepa e tsoang linaheng tse ling.Ho tloha ka 2017, likhoebo tsa lapeng li thehile lihlahisoa tsa POE ka tatellano.Wanhua Chemical, Oriental Shenghong, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Satellite Chemistry le likhoebo tse ling tsa poraefete li lebelletsoe ho fihlela phetoho ea lehae ea POE nakong e tlang.
Lisebelisoa tsa betri ea lithium: thomello ea lisebelisoa tse 'ne tsa mantlha e ekelitsoe le ho feta
Ka 2022, 'maraka oa China oa ho boloka matla a matla a betri le lithium o ile oa lula o le holimo, o tsamaisa thepa ea betri ea lithium hore e eketsehe haholo.Ho latela data ea Mokhatlo oa Likoloi oa China, ho tloha ka Pherekhong ho isa ho Pulungoana 2022, tlhahiso le thekiso ea likoloi tse ncha tsa motlakase tsa malapeng li phethile limilione tse 6.253 le limilione tse 6.067, ka ho latellana, keketseho ea selemo le selemo, mme karolo ea mmaraka e fihlile ho 25%.
Setsi sa Patlisiso ea Indasteri ea Theknoloji e Phahameng (GGII) e lebelletsoe ho rekisa ho feta limilione tse 6.7 thekiso ea likoloi tse ncha tsa motlakase ka 2022;ho lebelletsoe hore 'maraka o mocha oa likoloi tsa China o tla feta limilione tse 9 ka 2023. Ka 2022, sekhahla sa kholo ea thomello ea betri ea lithium ea China e lebelletsoe ho feta 100%, sekhahla sa kholo ea thomello ea betri ea matla e lebelletsoe ho feta 110%, le sekhahla sa kholo. thepa ea polokelo ea matla ea lithium battery e feta 150%.Kholo e kholo ea thomello ea betri ea lithium e tsamaisitse lisebelisoa tse 'ne tsa mantlha tsa lintho tse ntle, tse mpe, tsa diaphragm, electrolyte, le lisebelisoa tse ling tsa betri tsa lithium tse kang lithium hexfluorophosphate le foil ea koporo ho ea maemong a fapaneng.
Lintlha li bontša hore halofo ea pele ea 2022, China Lithium Electric Electronic Materials e rometse lithane tse 770,000, keketseho ea 62% selemo le selemo;thomello ea thepa negative electrode e ne e le lithane tse 540,000, keketseho ea 68% selemo-ka-selemo;55%;thepa ea electrolyte e ne e le lithane tse 330,000, keketseho ea 63% selemo le selemo.Ka kakaretso, ka 2022, thomello e akaretsang ea betri e kholo ea lithium naheng ea China e ile ea lula e le mokhoa oa kholo.
GGII e bolela esale pele hore maraka a malapeng a lithium betri a tla feta 1TWh ka 2023. Har'a bona, ho romelloa ha betri ea matla ho lebeletsoe ho feta 800GWh, 'me thepa ea betri ea polokelo ea matla e tla feta 180GWh, e tla tsamaisa thepa e akaretsang ea libeteri tse' nè tse kholo tsa lithium ho tsoela pele ho eketseha. .
Le hoja litheko tsa lithium ore le letsoai la lithium li ile tsa theoha ka December 2022. Leha ho le joalo, mahlong a barekisi, sena se bakoa haholo-holo ka lebaka la phello ea off-season, 'me "inflection point" ea theko ea lithium ha e e-s'o fihle.
Huaxi Securities e lumela hore ho fetoha ha theko ea letsoai la lithium ke phetoho e tloaelehileng ea nako ea tlhōrō ea indasteri, eseng "inflection point".Shen Wanhongyuan Securities e boetse e lumela hore ka tokollo e tsoelang pele ea matla a tlhahiso ea thepa e tala ka 2023, mokhoa oa phaello ea ketane ea ketane ea li-lithium betri e tla tsoela pele ho tloha holimo ho ea tlase.Zhejiang Business Securities e lumela hore boipolelo bo ka thoko ba lisebelisoa tsa lithium bo boholo ho feta bo hlokahalang halofong ea bobeli ea 2023.
Nako ea poso: Jan-10-2023