Indasteri ea lik'hemik'hale e na le ho phahama ha theko ea "histori" ka 2025, e tsamaisoang ke tlhophiso ea matla a tlhokahalo ea phepelo le kabo bocha ea boleng ho pholletsa le ketane ea phepelo. Ka tlase ke tlhahlobo ea bakhanni ba bakang ho eketseha ha litheko, mabaka a bakang phapano ea phaello, litsela tsa tlhophiso ea indasteri, le menyetla ea matsete.
I. Bakhanni ba Tebileng ba Theko ea Litheko
1. Phetoho Phetoho ka Raw Materials
- Ho se leka-lekane ha phepelo ea oli e sa jeseng litheohelang: Ho fokotseha ha tlhahiso ea OPEC + ho kopantsoe le kholo e fokolang ho tsoa ho bahlahisi bao e seng ba OPEC ho bolokile Brent crude ka holimo ho $100/barrel.
- Tlhokahalo e phatlohileng ea lisebelisoa tse ncha tsa matla: Lithium carbonate (mophato oa liindasteri bakeng sa libeteri tsa LFP) li nyolohile ka 120% YoY, ha sehlaseli sa DMC sa electrolyte se ile sa phunyeletsa letšoao la ¥10,000/ton.
- Litšenyehelo tse hlakileng tsa khabone: Litefiso tsa khabone tsa CBAM tsa EU joale li koahela lik'hemik'hale tsa mantlha tse kang synthetic ammonia le methanol.
2. Structural Supply-Side Tightness
- Phalliso ea bokhoni ba Europe: BASF le linatla tse ling li koetse 30% ea matla a maiketsetso a ammonia a Jeremane, a fetisetsa tlhahiso ho US Gulf Coast.
- Phetoho ea lehlakore la phepelo ea China 2.0: Litlhokahalo tsa ntlafatso ea tikoloho le tekheniki indastering ea dae le titanium dioxide e potlakisitse ho tsoa ha bahlahisi ba banyenyane ho isa ho ba mahareng.
- Mathata a tsamaiso ea lipolotiki: Koluoa ea Leoatle le Lefubelu e bakile keketseho ea 300% ho litjeo tsa likepe tsa Asia-Europe, ho atolosoa ha litheko bakeng sa lihlahisoa tse sa tsotelleng lipalangoang joalo ka TDI.
3. Litšenyehelo-ka-Tsela ho tloha Theknoloji Shifts
- Khoebo ea thepa e thehiloeng ho bio: Litheko tsa PLA li laela tefo ea 40% ho feta PE ea setso, ha Apple le Tesla ba notlela likonteraka tsa nako e telele.
- Ho kenya lik'hemik'hale tsa semiconductor: Litheko tsa Ultra-pure electronic-grade hydrofluoric acid li feta $50,000/ton, ka 15% ea premium ho feta mefuta e meng ea Majapane / Korea Boroa.
II. Phapang ea Phaello 'Mapa
| Karolo | ROE Change (2024 vs. 2025) | Ho Atolosoa ha Theko | Bakhanni ba Bohlokoa |
| Lisebelisoa tse Ncha tsa Matla | +8.2pct→ 21.5% | 35-50% | Lintlafatso tsa betri ea boemo bo tiileng |
| Lik'hemik'hale tse ngata | -3.5pct → 6.8% | 10-15% | Litšenyehelo tsa litsela tse thehiloeng ka mashala |
| Lik'hemik'hale Tse Khethehileng | +5.1pct→ 18.3% | 25-40% | Tlhokahalo ea thepa ea koloi e bobebe |
| Agro-lik'hemik'hale | +2.3pct → 12.7% | 18-22% | Ho amoheloa ha lijalo tsa GMO + komello ea Amerika Boroa |
III. Phallo ea Boleng ho Feta Phatlalatso ea Thepa
1. Lits'oants'o tsa Lisebelisoa tsa Upstream (mohlala, bahlahisi ba phosphate & lithium) ba laola matla a theko, 'me lik'hamphani tse kang Yuntianhua li fihletse>50% ea kakaretso ea kakaretso ka kotara e le' ngoe.
2. Likarolo tsa Midstream High-Barrier:
- Fluoropolymers: Litefiso tsa ho lokisa thepa ea karohano ea PVDF li fihlile ¥80,000/ton.
- Lik'hemik'hale tse phahameng ka ho fetisisa: Litlhoko tsa bohloeki tsa isopropanol tsa semiconductor-grade li ile tsa phahama ho tloha ho 99.99% ho ea ho 99.9999%.
3. Bafani ba Maiketsetso a Tlase: Lik'hamphani tse kang Covestro li hlahisitse mefuta ea "tefello-ea-ts'ebetso", ho eketsa ho boloka bareki ka 30%.
IV. Lintlha tsa 2025 tse ka Sehloohong
1. Windows ea Phatlalatso ea Theknoloji:
- Molemo oa litšenyehelo tsa ho phatloha ha Ethane oa fokotseha, ha PDH project ROI e oela ka tlase ho 5%.
- Litšenyehelo tsa tlhahiso ea BDO tse thehiloeng ho Bio-based li theola 25% khahlanong le litsela tsa petroleum.
2. Rebalancing ea Libaka:
- Middle East Sulfur-chemical hub: SABIC ea Saudi e hahile semela sa 2M ton/selemo se theko e tlase sa sulfuric acid.
- Li-coatings tsa Asia Boroa-bochabela: Nippon Paint Vietnam e sebetsa ho 120% ea tšebeliso ea matla.
3. Tlhahlobo ea ESG:
- Merero ea ammonia e entsoeng ka hydrogen e tala e fumana litefiso tse 3x tsa boleng.
- Lithibelo tsa EU ho likoloi tse nang le PFAS tse nang le lihlahisoa> 60% CAGR bakeng sa mekhoa e meng.
V. Investment Decision Matrix
Lintlha tsa Pele tsa Kabo ea Leano:
- Lisebelisoa tse nang le lithibelo tse phahameng: li-cores tsa mahe a linotsi tsa Aramid, li-precursors tsa silicon carbide.
- Litšitiso tsa ts'ebetso: Phatlalatso ea adiponitrile synthesis, CO₂-to-DMC phetoho.
- Libapali tse ipatileng: Li-strippers tsa Photoresist, li-sealant tsa boemo ba sefofane.
Litlhokomeliso tsa Kotsi:
- US e beha litefiso tsa 15% ho thepa ea China e thehiloeng ho bio (e sebetsang Q3 2025).
- Lintlafatso tsa betri ea sodium-ion li ka putlama tlhokahalo ea thepa ea lithium.
Indasteri e ntse e le tlas'a tokiso ea bohlokoa ka ho fetisisa ho tloha ka 2008. Likhamphani tse nang le phapang ea thekenoloji le bokhoni ba ho kopanya ho ea holimo, hammoho le libapali tse nang le li-license tse fokolang tsa tlhahiso, ke lintlha tsa bohlokoa. Har'a ho phahama ho hoholo ha litheko, lifeme tse bolokang thekiso ea thepa ka tlase ho matsatsi a 30 li tla bonts'a botsitso bo matla ba phaello.
Nako ea poso: May-30-2025