Le hoja halofo ea bobeli ea 2022, lik'hemik'hale tsa matla le lihlahisoa tse ling li kene mohatong oa tokiso, empa bahlahlobisisi ba Goldman Sachs tlalehong ea morao-rao ba ntse ba hatisa hore lintlha tsa motheo tse khethollang ho phahama ha lik'hemik'hale tsa matla le lihlahisoa tse ling ha lia fetoha, li ntse li tla tlisa meputso e khanyang. selemong se tlang.
Ka Labobeli, Jeff Currie, motsamaisi oa Goldman Sachs Commodity Research, le Samantha Dart, motsamaisi oa lipatlisiso tsa khase ea tlhaho, ba lebelletse hore tekanyo ea litekanyetso tsa lihlahisoa tse kholo joalo ka indasteri ea lik'hemik'hale, Ho bolela hore S&P GSCI Total Return Index e ka fumana 43% e eketsehileng. ka 2023 ka morao ho 20% le phaello ea selemo sena.
(S&P Kospi Total Commodities Index, mohloli: Investing)
GOldman Sachs o lebelletse hore 'maraka karolong ea pele ea 2023 e kanna ea ba le mathata a itseng maemong a ho putlama ha moruo, empa phepelo ea oli le khase ea tlhaho e tla tsoela pele ho nyoloha.
Ntle le setsi sa lipatlisiso sa morekisi, capital e boetse e sebelisa khauta ea 'nete le silevera ho hlahisa tšepo ea eona ea nako e telele mabapi le thepa.Ho ea ka lintlha tse tsetelitsoeng ke Bridge Alternative, likoleche tse phahameng tse 15 tse shebaneng le 'maraka oa thepa selemong sena, boholo ba thepa e laoloang ke 50% ho ea ho $ 20,7 limilione tse likete.
Goldman Sachs o ile a etsa qeto ea hore ntle le chelete e lekaneng ea ho theha bokhoni ba tlhahiso e ruileng, thepa e tla tsoelapele ho oela boemong ba khaello ea nako e telele, 'me theko e tla tsoela pele ho phahama le ho fetoha le ho feta.
Ho latela lipehelo tse ikhethileng, Goldman Sachs o lebelletse hore oli e tala, eo hajoale e tsamaeang ho pota $80 ka barrel, ho nyolohela ho $ 105 bofelong ba 2023;'me theko ea tekanyetso ea khase ea tlhaho ea Asia e ka nyoloha ho tloha ho $33/millione ho ea ho $53.
Haufinyane, ho bile le matšoao a ho hlaphoheloa 'marakeng o nang le bokhoni,' me lik'hemik'hale li se li le holimo.
Ka December 16, har'a lihlahisoa tsa 110 tsa tlhokomelo ea Zhuochuang Information, lihlahisoa tsa 55 li eketsehile ka potoloho ena, tse ikarabellang bakeng sa 50.00%;Lihlahisoa tse 26 li tšoaretsoe ka mokhoa o tsitsitseng, li nka karolo ea 23.64%;Lihlahisoa tse 29 li ile tsa oa, tse ikarabellang bakeng sa 26.36%.
Ho latela pono ea lihlahisoa tse ikhethileng, ho hlakile hore PBT, polyester filament, le benhypenhydronic li khutlisitsoe.
PBT
Morao tjena, litheko tsa 'maraka oa PBT li nyolohile,' me phaello e tsoetse pele.Ho tloha ka December, indasteri ea pele e ile ea qala ho lebisa tlhokomelo e tlaase ho baetsi ba thepa ea thepa e thata, 'me ka thepa e tala ea BDO e hula ts'ebetso, ho tšoha ha thepa ho ile ha eketseha, PBT marakeng a fana ka thepa ka thata, theko e ile ea phahama hanyenyane, indasteri. phaello e fetohile.
PBT pure resin price trend chart in East China
POY
Ka mor'a "Golden Nine Silver Ten", tlhokahalo ea li-filaments tsa polyester e fokotsehile haholo.Baetsi ba 'nile ba tsoela pele ho etsa phaello ea phaello,' me sepheo sa khoebo se ntse se tsoela pele ho theoha.Qetellong ea Pulungoana, sepheo sa transaction ea Poy150D e ne e le 6,700 yuan/ton.Ka December, ha tlhokahalo ea ho qetela e ntse e hlaphoheloa butle-butle, 'me mohlala o moholo oa li-polyester filaments o ne o le moholo oa chelete, bahlahisi ba ne ba rekisa ka theko e tlaase,' me tlaleho e ile ea phahamisoa ka mor'a e 'ngoe.Basebelisi ba tlase ba ne ba tšoenyehile ka hore litšenyehelo tsa ho reka nakong e tlang li ile tsa eketseha.Boemo ba 'maraka oa polyester filament bo ntse bo tsoela pele ho phahama.Bohareng ba December, theko ea Poy150D e ne e le 7075 yuan/ton, keketseho ea 5.6% ho tloha khoeling e fetileng.
PA
Mmaraka oa lapeng oa benhynhydr o felile hoo e ka bang likhoeli tse peli, mme mmaraka o kentse ho fokotseha ho hoholo ha sekhahla.Ho tloha ha a kena bekeng ena, a anngoeng ke ho khutla ha 'maraka oa benhypenichydr, phaello ea indasteri ea lapeng ea benhypenhydrate e ntlafetse.Har'a tsona, phaello e kholo ea tlhahiso ea sampole ea boahelani ea benhypenhydrate ke 132 yuan/ton, keketseho ea 568 yuan/ton ho tloha ka la 8 Tšitoe, 'me ho fokotseha ke 130.28%.Theko ea lihlahisoa tse tala e theohile, empa 'maraka oa bonalide o tsitsitse mme o tsoetse pele,' me indasteri e fetohile ho tloha tahlehelong.Phaello e felletseng ea sampole ea pyrine ke 190 yuan/ton, keketseho ea 70 yuan/ton ho tloha ka la 8 Tšitoe, le phokotseho ea 26.92%.Haholo-holo ke hobane theko ea indasteri ea thepa e tala e tsoetse pele, ha theko ea 'maraka ea benic anhydride e ile ea phahama haholo,' me tahlehelo ea indasteri e fokotsehile.
Ha e le hantle, ho na le bahlahlobisisi ba bang bao hona joale ba nahanang hore phello ea ho putlama ha moruo e nyenyefalitsoe.Ed Morse, hlooho ea lipatlisiso tsa thepa ho Citigroup, o boletse bekeng ena feela hore phetoho e ka bang teng mabapi le mebaraka ea thepa, e lateloang ke ho putlama ho ka bang teng lefatšeng ka bophara, e ka baka tšokelo ea thepa ho sehlopha sa thepa.
Ke mesong ea mafube, re emetse hore tlhoko e theohe, ho latela Youliao.Ka 2013, tlhoko ea China e ile ea angoa ke seoa sena, athe inflation e phahameng e ile ea hatella butle-butle tlhoko ea mose ho maoatle.Le hoja 'maraka o lebeletse hore lebelo la ho phahama ha Fed le tla fokotseha, empa phello ea moruo oa sebele e tla hlaha butle-butle, e leng se lebisang ho fokotseha ho hoholo ha tlhokahalo.Ho theoloa ha leano la thibelo ea seoa la China ho kentse matla a ho fola, empa tlhoro ea pele ea ts'oaetso e ntse e ka baka litšitiso tsa nakoana.Ho hlaphoheloa Chaena ho ka qala karolong ea bobeli.
Nako ea poso: Dec-22-2022